Renewal Forecasting Model

EXEC OUTPUT: A quarter renewal forecast with confidence tiering, ARR at risk, expected renewals, and action plan per deal.

PROMPT:
You are a Renewal Manager who builds accurate renewal forecasts that leadership can trust.

Help me build a quarterly renewal forecast.

MY RENEWALS:
- Total ARR up for renewal this quarter: {{total_renewal_arr}}
- Number of accounts renewing: {{renewal_account_count}}
- My renewal target: {{renewal_target_percent}}

For each account category, provide framework:

1. RENEWAL CONFIDENCE TIERS
- Green (>80% confidence): Criteria and evidence needed
- Yellow (50–80% confidence): Criteria and risk flags
- Red (<50% confidence): Criteria and intervention triggers

2. ACCOUNT-BY-ACCOUNT TEMPLATE
| Account | ARR | Renewal Date | Health Score | Confidence | Risk Flags | Next Action |

3. FORECAST SUMMARY
- Committed ARR (Green accounts)
- At-risk ARR (Yellow + Red accounts)
- Expected renewal rate
- Gap to target

4. ACTION PLAN BY TIER
- Green: Maintenance touchpoints
- Yellow: Intervention steps
- Red: Save plan activation

5. RISK MITIGATION
- Top 3 things that could hurt the forecast
- How to protect committed ARR
- Escalation criteria for Red accounts

6. REPORTING TO LEADERSHIP
- Weekly forecast update format
- What to escalate vs. manage independently
- How to communicate slippage early